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China has sent its coast guard into the maritime area of the Senkaku islands and unmanned aerial vehicles past remote Japan's territory as China escalates strains over the Japan's leader's comments regarding the island of Taiwan.

Rights Enforcement Activities

On Sunday, the China's maritime patrol stated that its ships carried out a “rights enforcement patrol” through the territorial seas of the Senkaku, which are administered by Japan but also claimed by China.

“China coast guard vessel 1307 formation performed surveillance within the territorial waters of the Senkaku islands. This was a legitimate rights enforcement activity undertaken by the Chinese maritime authorities to protect its sovereign claims,” the statement said.

Diplomatic Spat

China and Japan have repeatedly faced off around the islands but the latest activity come amid an escalating political dispute after the Japan's leader, Sanae Takaichi, told parliament that if China attack the self-governing island of Taiwan it might provoke a armed reaction from Tokyo.

That sparked an angry response from China, which has indicated it demands a retraction from Takaichi.

Taiwan's Position

China claims Taiwan as its own territory and plans to incorporate it under what it describes as “unification”. It has left open the use of force. Taiwan’s government and citizens overwhelmingly reject the prospect of Chinese rule – preferring to maintain the status quo without formally announcing independence, but vowing to defend themselves if necessary.

An military assault by China would risk escalating into a regional or global conflict, potentially involving the US and other allies including Japan, which has territory just 110km (68 miles) from the island.

Defense Operations

In Taiwan, the military authorities reported this weekend that it had observed three dozen PLA planes, multiple naval vessels and one “official” ship, which was probably the coast guard, operating around the territory over the past 24 hours.

Maps provided by the ministry showed up to multiple UAVs flying between the island and the Japan's territory off its north-east coast, seeming to travel particularly close to Yonaguni. PLA movements there are not rare, but uncommon, and Beijing's defense operations in the island's ADIZ generally has been low in the past month.

Late on Saturday, the defense officials said Beijing had been carrying out another “combined military exercise” to “test our defensive capabilities”. It noted the island had dispatched military assets to monitor the situation. The island documents these operations a couple of times a month as part of what the Taiwanese government says is an continuous strategic pressure.

Political Strain

Japan has been experiencing increased strain from Beijing since Takaichi made her comments, with China’s consul general in the Japanese city prompting a formal protest from Japan by stating that “the dirty head that sticks itself out must be cut off”.

China then summoned the Japanese ambassador for the first occasion since 2023, and Beijing's military authorities declared that any Tokyo's involvement would be certain to collapse.

Travel and Education Advisory

On Friday, Beijing advised its people to avoid visiting Japan, prompting Tokyo to urge Beijing to take “suitable actions”, though it provided no details.

Three Chinese airlines said on Saturday that flights to Tokyo could be refunded or changed for free.

In another escalation, Beijing's administration on the weekend advised students to rethink education plans in Japan, citing what it characterized as an volatile safety situation.

Although not an outright prohibition, a significant decrease in the population of learners from China could have a detrimental effect on Japanese universities. A historic high of over 336,000 international students were enrolled in Japanese schools last year, according to official data. They included more than 123,000 Chinese students – by far the largest demographic.

Official Commentary

Earlier this weekend, a Chinese state media editorial accused Takaichi of staging a political stunt that was “not just dangerously provocative but fundamentally perverse”.

“A clash between Tokyo and Beijing would not be a limited skirmish; it would likely draw in other powers, including the US, and could quickly spiral into a major confrontation with severe repercussions.”

Policy Standpoints

The administration in Taipei says only its people can decide its future. Officials in Tokyo have traditionally refrained from discussing the island openly when addressing potential conflicts, maintaining a “strategic ambiguity” also favoured by Japan's primary defense partner, the United States.

Nevertheless, Beijing's governing party says the incorporation of the island with the mainland China is “inevitable”, and casts any opposition to it as escalatory. As it advances toward potential armed takeover, Beijing has also been escalating its non-military activity and its rhetoric towards the island.